Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
Following a more than 15 per cent surge in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 from this year's lows, the spread between the 10-year government security (G-sec) and the Nifty earnings has approached the danger zone of 2 percentage points (ppt). At present, the G-sec yield is roughly 7.09 per cent, while the Nifty earnings are 5.12 per cent. As a result, the spread works out to 1.98 ppt, ever so slightly below the danger mark of 2 ppt.
From the Sensex pack, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, NTPC and UltraTech Cement emerged as major winners, closing the day with a gain of up to 3.33 per cent. On the other hand, Asian Paints, ITC, L&T and SBI were the laggards, ending the session up to 3.95 per cent lower. Of the 30 Sensex stocks, 14 closed the day in green, while on the 50-stock index Nifty 25 scrips ended with gains.
Asset management companies launched 239 new fund offerings (NFOs) mobilising Rs 1.18 lakh crore in 2024, with sectoral or thematic equity funds emerging as the top choice of investors, according to a report by Germinate Investor Services Research. This was higher than 212 NFOs collecting Rs 63,854 crore in 2023 and 228 NFOs garnering Rs 62,187 crore in 2022.
The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
All sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Telecommunication tanked 2.18 per cent, metal (1.77 per cent), auto (1.70 per cent), energy (1.64 per cent), oil & gas (1.59 per cent), commodities (1.39 per cent) and financial services (1.37 per cent) were the major laggards.
Although UltraTech Cement's results for the December quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25) were not an improvement compared to Q3FY24, the company managed to surpass Street expectations. The company's profit attributable to the owners of the parent dropped 17.4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1,469.5 crore in Q3FY25 as against Rs 1,777 crore in Q3FY24.
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
Share prices of Nestle India, Asian Paints, Bandhan Bank, Tata Technologies, AU Small Finance Bank and Avenue Supermarts, all a part of the BSE 500 index, have hit their respective 52-week lows on the BSE in Thursday's intra-day trade after a sharp correction in the equity markets.
The ideal time to invest in sector funds, is during a downturn so that investors can capitalise on a turnaround in 1.5 to 2 years.
DIIs owned equities worth Rs 73.5 trillion, just 1.9 per cent less than FPIs. This marks a significant change from a decade ago.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty Next 50 Index could undergo large-scale changes if the proposed tweaks to its computation methodology get implemented. In a discussion paper floated recently, NSE Indices, which owns and manages a portfolio of over 350 indices under the Nifty brand, proposed that only stocks that are traded in the futures and options (F&O) segment can be part of the index. Currently, as many as 11 non-F&O stocks are part of the Nifty Next 50 Index, which, as the name suggests, represents the next rung of large and liquid securities after the Nifty50.
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
'In phases when smaller stocks do well, an equal-weight index performs better than its market cap-weighted peer.'
The stocks of diagnostic service providers have been standout performers within the healthcare sector over the past year, posting returns between 16 and 80 per cent. In comparison, the Nifty 50 saw returns of 8 per cent. Stable pricing, expectations of gradual volume growth, and market share expansion for the larger players have stoked increased optimism for listed companies.
ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, NTPC, JSW Steel, State Bank of India and Adani Ports were the other big gainers. Asian Paints, Nestle, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and ITC were the other big laggards.
The Budget proposals are expected to boost the fortunes of consumer goods and fast-moving consumer goods companies, which have been struggling with poor consumer demand for more than a year. The Budget announcements, such as the increase in standard deduction by Rs 25,000 for income-tax payers and slab revisions, will put more money in their hands, boosting consumer demand. Private consumption is also likely to benefit from a new scheme to offer internships to 10 million youths in the country's top 500 companies.
The equity market's recent downturn appears unlikely to slow the brisk pace of mutual fund (MF) scheme launches, at least in the coming weeks. Last month, fund houses introduced 21 new equity schemes, with another five launches already lined up for November. The number of filing with markets regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), suggests this momentum will continue with asset management companies (AMCs) seeking approval for 21 more equity schemes in October.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
Largecap companies are generally less vulnerable to economic slowdowns than their mid- and smallcap counterparts.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, HDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Sun Pharma, Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were the winners. HCL Technologies climbed 1 per cent after the company on Thursday posted a 10.85 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 3,983 crore for the fourth quarter of 2022-23. Tech Mahindra, Maruti, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank were among the laggards.
HDFC Life Insurance Company (HDFC Life) delivered a strong performance in the December quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), exceeding market expectations with robust earnings growth. The company reported a 13.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in net profit to Rs 414.9 crore in the quarter. The value of new business (VNB) rose 8.6 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 930 crore, compared to Rs 856 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
Overall market reaction to the Budget was neutral. Investors absorbed the changes to the tax rates (positive for salaried class) and capital gains taxes (CGTs, negative due to the removal of indexation and increases. Other proposals largely pertain to supporting rural development, buybacks taxed as dividends, Custom duty changes that impact multiple sectors, higher outlays for clean energy, etc. There's some moderation in the growth of capex outlay across defence, fer
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
Fundraising momentum is expected to accelerate further in the New Year, potentially surpassing 2024's record figures
The advance/decline ratio (ADR) - a gauge of market breadth - has remained negative (below 1) for a second consecutive month. In other words, the number of stocks declining is outpacing those rising, as a brutal selloff by overseas investors and lofty valuations weigh on sentiment. According to BSE data, the ADR for October stands at 0.98 for the second month in a row.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Dalal Street minnows stole the show in 2024, giving handsome returns to investors, helped by a largely optimistic trend in the stock market and impressive retail investors' participation. Analysts attributed the positive trend in the equity markets, where the benchmark indices shattered many records this year, to robust domestic liquidity, strong fundamentals of the Indian economy, and policy continuity.
During the first eight months of CY24, 50 IPOs mobilised Rs 53,453 crore.
Adani Group on Friday raised Rs 4,850 crore from the sale of 13.5 per cent of its stake in Fortune oil maker Adani Wilmar as part of a strategy to exit non-core activities to focus on main infrastructure business. The conglomerate, which last month announced its exit from Adani Wilmar by selling the bulk of its stake to a joint venture partner, had on Thursday announced sale of 17.54 crore shares (13.50 per cent equity) in the company on January 10 (to non-retail investors) and on January 13 (to retail investors) at a floor or minimum price of Rs 275 apiece.
Tasting success with the relaunch of Sensex derivatives in the onshore market, BSE is preparing for the 'offshore' debut of its 30-share index, which has become synonymous with the domestic markets. Sources in the know said that the India International Exchange (India INX), a subsidiary of BSE, received approval in July from the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA) to launch Sensex 30 derivatives contracts.
Momentum funds can be 10 to 15 per cent more volatile than the Nifty 50.
From the Sensex pack, Larsen & Toubro jumped 4.26 per cent to emerge as the biggest gainer, followed by IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies, Power Grid, NTPC, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank and Wipro. Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, UltraTech Cement and Hindustan Unilever were the major laggards.
Lord Ganesha's teachings offer valuable insights for investors in the Indian stock market. By thinking big, working consistently, starting early, and approaching investing with a rational mindset, investors can increase their chances of achieving their financial goals.
With Rs 17,087 crore raised so far this calendar year, the total is already 2.4 times that of the full year of 2023, which stood at Rs 7,266 crore.
Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Nestle, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Tata Consultancy Services, IndusInd Bank and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Infosys, JSW Steel, NTPC and Power Grid were the gainers.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
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